It’s time for one of my favorite times of the sports year. The NBA Playoffs begin this weekend. We get high-level, intense basketball to watch every night. We get the players setting the tone for the most ridiculous fashion choices for the year. We get ESPN continuing to alternate between will.i.am and Pitbull for cheesy commercials and promos. And we get the biggest gift of all, Inside the NBA nearly every night. I’m all in, I’m always all in. I love basketball, so I’ll be occupied every night. Here some thoughts on each series.
(1) Warriors vs (8) Pelicans… GS in 4
– I might need to record every Warriors playoff game at Oracle Arena. Between the style of play that the Warriors have, the players who are in that system, Stephen Curry, and that crowd, who knows when we’ll see something like that again.
– The Brow! I haven’t watched Anthony Davis play as much as I’d like to. Here’s the chance. It’ll be interesting to see how the Pels use him. The Warriors set a bunch of off ball screens with their bigs (and can play their bigs on the perimeter). Davis has the length and quickness to switch onto guards, but that pulls him away from the rim, where he’s the NBA’s best shot blocker.
– GS had the best offense and the best defensive efficiency in the league. They have the likely MVP, the likely defensive player of the year, another player who could finish in the top 5 in defensive POY voting, and a possible 3rd team All-NBA player. They’re the most versatile team in the league, and have a coach that uses all those pieces extremely well. They were 39-2 at home, winning by an average of 15ppg. It’s the most enjoyable basketball team to watch over a long stretch that I can remember.
(4) Blazers vs (5) Grizzlies… MEM in 7
– The Clippers should be upset about this series. The Blazers had the 6th best record in the west, so should be the 6th seed. But, thanks to winning a division, Portland gets a top 4 seed (although surrender home court advantage) and the Clippers have to face the Spurs. A healthy Blazers team is no joke, but Wes Matthews being out looks like it’s going to ground them. Can’t replace that perimeter defense and volume 3 point shooting.
– Battle of the power forwards will be fun. The Blazers like to hide Lamarcus Aldridge on the opposing team’s big who isn’t an offensive threat (Robin Lopez takes the threat). The problem? Ain’t no where to hide a big against Memphis. Z-Bo and Marc Gasol can punish Aldridge, although I think Aldridge will guard Gasol. On the flipside, Lamarcus will most likely be defended by Z-Bo, and might be able to shoot over him on the mid range post ups.
– Mike Conley has been injured down the stretch for Memphis, but he’ll play. Opposing point guards typically can eat against Portland (Lillard isn’t a good defender). Is Conley healthy enough to take advantage of that matchup? I have a feeling Lillard will see a lot of Tony Allen in the 4th quarters of games, making it tough for him. But, Tony Allen is such an offensive liability when he’s on the floor.
(2) Rockets vs (7) Mavs… HOU in 6
– Prepare to have these games take 3 hours. Prepare for a bunch of free throws. These teams have some awful free throw shooters, and coaches who aren’t afraid to intentionally foul to send them to the line. Dwight Howard, Terrence Jones, Josh Smith, and Joey Dorsey are all terrible for Houston, and Rajon Rond is stunningly bad for the Mavs.
– Dallas was the best offensive team in the NBA throughout the first part of the season. Then they traded for Rondo, and they haven’t been the same. Good luck with a PG who can’t shoot, and won’t drive to the basket in today’s NBA (he’s afraid to shoot FT’s). And offense that kept the ball moving and had shooting threats all over the floor has become a team that looks lost at times. Rondo can be a decent defender though, and he’ll have to be against James Harden.
– Dirk is one of my favorite players to watch, and he’s still producing. He’ll have one game where he hits a bunch of crunch time difficult shots to steal a game. Rick Carlisle will use lineups and sets that we haven’t seen before that’ll work for another game. But, James Harden’s scoring and setting up Houston 3’s is something that I wouldn’t expect the current version of the Mavs to overcome.
(3) Clippers vs (6) Spurs… LAC in 7
– Costly loss in the season finale for San Antonio, instead of facing Dallas as the 2 seed, they get Los Angeles as the 6. But, the Spurs have been so good throughout the 2nd half of the season thanks to Kawhi Leonard. He’s the best wing defender in the league. Luckily for the Clippers, they might be the team in the playoffs that is the least reliant on wing scoring. Kawhi won’t guard Chris Paul the entire game, but without a wing threat (maybe Jamal Crawford), expect to see Leonard on Paul in crunch time. And then, grab some popcorn.
– Tim Duncan is still a very good rim protector and post defender. The Clippers have no bench, but their starting unit has two options that he can guard (Griffin or Jordan). Who he defends could depend on who the other big the Spurs have in the game with him. The Spurs lose a bit of offense with Splitter in the game (he’s a good passer, like all of San Antonio), but there’s no question he can do a serviceable job on Griffin. The Spurs are at their peak offensively with Boris Diaw in the game. Defending DeAndre Jordan is just a matter of communicating when he’s setting screens, and having the speed to recover on rolls to the basket. Diaw seems capable of doing that. And he’s probably stout enough to defend Griffin too. Part of what makes the Spurs so good.
– Gregg Popovich is all in on the intentional foul strategy. So, DeAndre Jordan might shoot 20 FTs per game in this series. The Clippers take a dive defensively when he’s not on the floor, so Doc Rivers won’t want to take him out, even if he’s missing them all. If he hits just an acceptable amount, him being in the game puts a deterrent to all of the Spurs screening action in the paint. Chris Paul has been amazing this year as a passer, shooter, and defender, and he can have a banner series against Tony Parker. It’s a shame one of these teams won’t be in round 2.
(1) Hawks vs (8) Nets… ATL in 5
– When the Nets traded with the Hawks for Joe Johnson a couple years ago, Brooklyn thought they’d routinely be a contender in the east. Instead, the Hawks didn’t miss him at all, and really took off this year. Meanwhile, the Nets at their peak have been just “a pretty good” east team the last couple seasons. The Nets pretty much gave all their draft picks to Atlanta and Boston (including a pick swap with Atlanta this year) and now they’re hopeless.
– Atlanta was just 7-8 in the last 15 games, but they already had everything wrapped up. Coach Mike Budenholzer was trying lineups just for the sake of trying lineups. They’ll have this series to find that rhythm they had during the mid season. Their 2nd round matchup doesn’t look too daunting either.
– Steph Curry is an amazing shooter. But, if my lift was dependent on one person hitting an open 3, I’m picking Kyle Korver.
(4) Raptors vs (5) Wizards… WAS in 6
– It’s hard to find anyone who thinks Randy Wittman is a good coach. His Wizards got worse as the season went on, and they look uncreative on offense for long stretches. A lot of the time, the offense bogs down into John Wall isos. Toronto has been below average defensively, so which bad unit it better could be a story.
– Strength vs strength on the other side. Gortat and Nene provide interior defense for the Wizards, and Pierce is still a very good wing defender. But, the Raptors are a top 5 offense. Kyle Lowry and Lou Williams are scorers and creators, and the ball seems to always be moving.
– Raptors lost a game 7 at home last year to Brooklyn and Paul Pierce. If it goes 7, tough to envision them losing another one. Wizards could win in 6 though.
(2) Cavs vs (7) Celtics… CLE in 4
– Lebron’s playoff history says he gets out of the 1st round quickly. We don’t have a playoff history from Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love. The narrative on Kevin Love is that he’s been a disappointment. Looking at the stats, hard to call 16pts, 7reb per game as a 3rd option a disappointment. One of the big playoff debates will be how the Cavs are using him. Over/under 3 Inside the NBA debates where Charles Barkley says Love needs to post up more.
– There’s a reason the Cavs rested their stars in two late season games against the Celtics. They wanted to face Boston. It’s a team without any kind of rim protection against two of the best slashers in the NBA. Expect dunks and layups for Cleveland.
– Cleveland had the best record in the east in the 2nd half of the season. Boston had the 2nd best record.
(3) Bulls vs (6) Bucks… CHI in 6
– Tom Thibodeau is the best defensive coach in the league. The Bucks might have the best defensive personnel. Between Michael Carter Williams, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jared Dudley, Khris Middleton, and others, they have a bunch of long wing players that can defend and switch 1-4. And, both teams struggle to find consistent scoring. We’ll be lucky to have any games in the 90s.
– I haven’t seen this before, but apparently whenever the Bulls play in Milwaukee, the arena is filled with Bulls fans. Too bad, usually one of the best parts on the 1st round is seeing the crowd of a team like the Bucks who haven’t been in the playoffs in a while.
– With Nikola Mirotic, Pau Gasol, and hopefully Derrick Rose, the Bulls have more scoring options down the stretch.
