The NCAA is putting together a task force to study the whys and why nots of having 5-7 college football teams appearing in bowl games. This year 3 teams with losing records got in the system: Nebraska/Minnesota (Big 10) and San Jose State (MWC). The Big 12 has 14 teams and the MWC 12 with 8 league games. If either of those leagues expanded, odds are they would have at least 1 extra league game to deal with. And that could be another loss. Theoretically, when schools schedule non-conference games, they select schools to play based on the odds of winning. So, if the NCAA decides to eliminate 5-7 teams from the bowl system it could be another reason for conferences to not expand their leagues. The bigger the conferences get, the more losses will have to come.
And, on a side note, I am okay with that.
I’m good with 12-2 North Carolina winning the College Football Playoff with losses to South Carolina and Clemson. Let’s stop non-conference FCS scheduling, encourage more Alabama – USC match ups and less Alabama vs Charleston Southern in November. You want butts in the seats AND eyeballs on TV? Quit programming bad live events and TV. It’s like watching an episode of 60 minutes covering state fairs, parades and New Year’s births. Why bother?
So, why would the Mountain West consider expansion and the Sun Belt Conference contraction?
Mountain West Expansion
RICE and UTEP will be discussed as expansion targets by the MWC presidents and athletic directors 12.13-14 in Phoenix. I understand UTEP wanting a better geographical fit then Conference USA and maybe Rice thinks the next TV deal for Conf USA is going to shrink too much and they want leverage. Houston is the #10 TV market after all. As for the MWC, they could be figuring out who to add in case the Big 12 expands and takes Colorado State and Boise State. UTEP could help fit that bill and had been a long time member of the old WAC. Or both those schools have indicated they would financially subsidize a move to the MWC and the conference can make more money. Kinda baffles me really.
Sun Belt Contraction
I still see this as a likely scenario. The Sun Belt presidents will vote in early March on whether or not to extend football only members Idaho and New Mexico State for the 2018 season and beyond. The NCAA January vote on whether or not you can have a conference championship game with 10 members is not a slam dunk anymore thanks to the Big 10.
That could impact this vote.
The Big 10 wants to make sure that if a conference has a championship game with only 10 members they are split into 2 divisions and not just played between the top two teams. This could change the Sun Belts thinking but I doubt it. With such little money to be gained by having a championship game vs lost by sharing a small pie 12 ways, why not cut loose of 2 schools. They don’t fit geographically, aren’t adding any TV/gate revenue value and pull down the conference ratings when factoring in football wins. The Sun Belt competes for College Football Playoff money with the other Group of 5 conferences and every win counts. Especially non-conference wins vs FBS schools. Neither school has one the last two seasons. I can’t see the Sun Belt coaches wanting a 12 team conference but there opinion holds little water with presidents.
If I am Idaho and New Mexico State, this needs to be resolved as soon as possible. How can you recruit football players to your school when you have no idea which conference you will play in for 2018? IMPOSSIBLE.
I bet both those schools go heavy on the junior college players again because those players only care about the next 2 years anyway. IF Idaho figures out they don’t have enough votes to be extended past 2018 in the Sun Belt, I say they pull out before the Sun Belt Presidents vote to save face and take charge of their own future. In the Big Sky.
