BY MIKE PRATER
@KTIK.COM
College football bowl games are like mystery novels – you know there’s a plot and an ending, but the details, unknowns and intangibles are so murky beyond the regular season, you have no idea how the final chapter/fourth quarter will unfold. With that said, here’s how the Oregon Ducks (7-5) can beat No. 25 Boise State (10-3) in the Las Vegas Bowl (1:30 p.m. Saturday, ABC, 93.1 FM The Ticket and KBOI 670 AM):
Reason No. 1: Justin Herbert. The Oregon quarterback is far from an unknown, and is the No. 1 reason the Ducks can win this game. The 6-foot-6 sophomore from Eugene, who last season became the first Oregon true freshman to start at QB since 1983, is a difference-maker for the Pac-12 program. Herbert started the first five games this season, missed five with a broken collarbone in his non-throwing shoulder, and started the final two of the regular season. The difference in production is dramatic:
- Oregon’s numbers this season when Herbert starts: 6-1 record, averaged 52.1 points, 550.3 yards and 26.7 first downs a game.
- Oregon’s numbers this season when Herbert doesn’t start: 1-4 record, averaged 15 points, 320 yards and 16.8 first downs a game.
Essentially, Herbert is an NFL prospect who is worth 37 points, 230 yards and 10 first downs a game – plenty of firepower in a game where the Ducks are already favored by 7.5 points. In the two games since his return, Herbert is 27-of-44 for 486 yards, four touchdowns and one interception in wins over Arizona (48-28) and Oregon State (69-10). Herbert’s also a strong runner, gaining 203 yards this season, with a long run of 40 yards and five touchdowns. His presence not only legitimizes the Ducks’ passing game, but also opens up the running game, making the Ducks a dangerous offense to stop.
Reason No. 2: Running backs. This position could decide the game – on either side of the ball. Boise State sophomore Alexander Mattison (1,074 yards, 12 TDs) injured his lower left leg/ankle in the Mountain West Championship Game, and his status for the Las Vegas Bowl is questionable. Oregon has senior Royce Freeman (1,475, 16), one of the top runners in college football. He practiced over the weekend, traveled with the team to Las Vegas on Monday night, but Oregon said Wednesday that he plans to skip this game to focus on an NFL career. Oregon has better depth at RB, and that could play a huge part of the outcome of this game.
Reason No. 3: Motivation. Intangibles are always an important part of postseason college football games. Who’s motivated to win, and who’s not? Boise State wants to win for all the right football reasons, but where’s the emotional boost? Can’t find one … The Ducks landed one when Mario Cristobal was promoted to head coach after Willie Taggart left last week for Florida State. That move could have been a disaster for Oregon, which went from a lame-Duck coach to its future head coach, a popular move amongst players. They know their future, and they have a new head coach to impress.
- COMING THURSDAY: Three reasons why Boise State can defeat Oregon.
Mike Prater, editor of The Opinionator, co-hosts Idaho Sports Talk with Caves & Prater weekdays from 3-6 p.m. on KTIK 93.1 FM The Ticket and can be heard on Bronco GameNight after BSU football games on KTIK 93.1 FM and KBOI 670 AM. He can be reached at mike.prater@cumulus.com, and found @CavesandPrater(Facebook) and @MikeFPrater (Twitter).
