I should have bet basketball in Vegas. I took San Diego St +3 and Boise State -5. I lost. So, I now venture into another edition of THIS about THAT with very little confidence I will be right. The stories that are moving forward are fluid but I like looking ahead sometimes more then commenting on what everybody has already seen. The Boise State – Washington rematch and Big East/Mountain West dilemma will test me. Might as well throw in a QB controversy to make it a three play parlay.
Boise St-UW 2013
Almost all of the key play makers on the field last Saturday will be back. Southwick, Williams-Rhodes, Miller, Boldewijn, Huff, Ioane, Horn, Martin, Sankey, Price, Seferian-Jenkins, Williams, and more. Boise State's defense will need to tackle Sankey better, get more physical in the run game up front and continue sacking Price. The addition of Lawrence in the defensive line is a difference maker and Atkinson was sorely missed. I do know that the match up of 5'9" 143 CB Donte Deayon on 6'2" 215 lb UW WR Kasen Williams will be exploited even more. That and a heavier dose of Seferian-Jenkins will be in order. UW will also have to hit some deeper passes to soften up the underneath stuff for Price. The longer he looked down field the worse it got. He needs to roll out more and be on the move, he looks uncomfortable in the pocket. Some no huddle may be in order from UW to keep the Broncos in personnel groups UW can exploit. Boise States offense will benefit from a better ground pounding of UW. Seems like they had to scratch and claw with quick passes to Potter, Southwick scrambles and double passes. I really see the Boise St offense only getting better next year and will be shocked if they don't score more points then 2012. Washington loses Trufant on defense and that's about it. Southwick will get tons of reps, more confidence and better. I think Boise St will win by more then 2 maybe 7!
Follow the $
Boise State left the Mountain West for at least 3.75 million in TV money. It may be coming back to the Mountain West to get close to that. When it left the MWC the tv payout was about $800,000 per school. The MWC has restructured its TV deal with CBS Sports TV , likely allowing Boise St to at least sell a few, if not all, of its home games to networks, read ESPN, on its own and keep all the money. Its never been allowed before to any school in any conference. The Big East has lost 7 basketball members, Louisville and Rutgers since Boise St joined. Their TV leverage went with them. The Big East couldn't get Air Force or BYU to join and added Tulane, East Carolina and Temple. Without more tv money, the allure of playing to the east for exposure sake rings hollow. Temple, Cincinnati and UConn averaged about 30,000 fans per game last season. If Boise St can get the Mountain West to ante up any combination of ways to get closer to 3.75 million per year, BSU will stay put. In the process they will have wasted allot of time and energy but it will still result in more money for the school.
Southwick vs who?
The idea that Nick Patti is going to replace Joe Southwick is more romantic then reality. Southwick has developed and matured in the last 13 games. Why would Boise St start over with Patti who has just become an understudy. Shouldn't the battle for Patti be with Hedrick for #2? The way Petersen discusses the QB position in public tells me he wants Southwick humble and hungry. It doesn't tell me he doesn't think he can do the job.
