Interim coaches don’t have a great winning record in bowl games. In the last 19 bowl games, interim coaches have an 8-11 record. Interim coaches like Boise States’ Bob Gregory. Some schools have better talent, are motivated and make more plays so that they can win for anybody who fills in. USC won for 3 different coaches this year. As coaches tell you, it still mostly comes down to the players having decent motivation and making more plays then the other team. Having more talent makes that possible sometimes.
So what about Boise State vs Oregon State? The clear talent edge at QB and WR is Oregon State and at RB and OL for Boise State. The rest is too close to call for me. Soooooo…
Who is Motivated?
Both teams are dealing with the pace, weather and aloha attitude that swallows them in Hawaii. Great food, tourist attractions, beach trips, time zone changes and constant reminders to luana (relax) make it tough to be on edge. Joe Southwick was sent home by Boise State, they have played without him on road trips before so I don’t think it is a factor. Coach Pete will be missed more. Oregon State has a 5 game losing streak to get off their back and finish with a winning season. Boise State has lost 2 of their last 5 games but hasn’t beaten a better team since Colorado State over six weeks ago.
Both have bad tastes in their mouth.
Oregon State has lost their last 2 bowl games and has not gone bowling 4 times in the last 12 years. 17 Beaver seniors have never won a bowl game they played in. Boise State is making their 12th straight bowl appearance and the 13 senior Broncos have never played in a bowl game they lost.
Advantage Oregon State. They’re hungry.
Mike Riley came back to stay at Oregon State in 2003 and isn’t going anywhere. Bob Gregory will be coaching for Washington starting Christmas Day and probably has already begun recruiting for the Huskies. Gregory has never been a Head Coach in college and had to make game day decisions on his own.
Advantage Oregon State.
Who has better match ups?
Oregon State has to throw the ball to win. Almost all their yardage comes from the pass. The Beavers have allowed more sack yardage then any Pac 12 school. Boise State sacked Fresno State 1x and Colorado State 3x when faced with 60 Bulldog pass attempts and 53 from the Rams. Mannion could throw it 48x and that’s just average. He’s gone over 50 four times. I think Oregon State throws the ball almost as well as Fresno State, maybe better. Mannion hit USC for 277 yards while Carr only had 217. Boise State’s defensive backs have struggled vs the pass, although I like Deayons’ chances of containing Cooks of OSU because the size matchup is a wash.
Advantage Oregon State.
Grant Hedrick has a 5 touchdown signature performance win versus Colorado State on the road. He doesn’t need that in this game because teams have run the ball right at Oregon State. Jay Ajayi can run the ball on any defense he is given a chance against. He can break the first tackle and often gets 4 or 5 yards on his own. As long as he doesn’t fumble, he can dominate this game. Oregon State has the 2nd worst run defense in the Pac 12. Washington was a way better run defense and Ajayi almost hit 100 on them. Boise State could miss the explosiveness of Shane Williams Rhodes who has a boot on his foot and, if he plays, will not be 100%.
Advantage Boise State.
So what’s it gonna be?
The more motivated, Mike Riley led team passing its way to a Hawaii bowl win? Or, the ball control Broncos proving the team is bigger than any coach?
I would say Oregon State is 3 point pick. And I’ll take those points.
